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October 25, 2007

Orphanage Fundraising Project

I am using a local startup www.crowdfunder.com, to raise $5,000 for an orphanage (HOGAR DE REFUGIO INFANTIL VILLA JUAREZ) in Mexico I have supported for the last few years.  My brother-in-law has visited many times and participated in construction projects at the old site.  The old site is being abandoned due to being contaminated with pesticides during hurricane Henrietta in September of this year.

Click-through below to get more information, see photos and contribute to relocation and reconstruction efforts.  Thanks much for your help. 

 

October 22, 2007

Computer Go (is hard!)

There is a great explanation of the challenges of computer Go at IEEE online this month. It is easy to assume the computer Chess problems and computer Go problems are much the same.  And this article makes a good cast that we can make some progress on computer Go by applying some of the techniques used with Deep Blue.  It also does a great job of explaining whey Go is so difficult to program. (Current computer Go champions have difficulty beating medium level amateurs.)

Networks And Obesity

There is an interesting article in the New England Journal Of Medicine this month in which the authors analyzed data from a long multi-generational health study of over 12,000 people to understand how the network of friends and relations correlates to obesity.  Christakis and Fowler found a number of relationships with increased probablility of shared obesity.

Among their findings,

A person's chances of becoming obese increased by 57% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6 to 123) if he or she had a friend who became obese in a given interval. Among pairs of adult siblings, if one sibling became obese, the chance that the other would become obese increased by 40% (95% CI, 21 to 60). If one spouse became obese, the likelihood that the other spouse would become obese increased by 37% (95% CI, 7 to 73).

Click through to read the whole article on the NEJM site (Free).  It is an interesting look at human behavior and a nice example of the power of network analysis.

 

 

October 19, 2007

Comments on "Innovation Nation" (By John Kao)

I appreciate Kao's timely synthesis in Innovation Nation. Kao's years of curiosity, work and study have built unique and rich intuition regarding the causes and context that increase the likelihood of innovation.

This book is has a something of an urgent, nearly polemic tone. Unfortuanetly it is difficult to avoid  glossing over complexities in the interest of keeping the story moving.  It is the story that is more valualbe than Kao's conceptual thinking or explanation of complex dynamics.

There are no charts in the book. This is odd given the topic is trends in innovation and that much of the context of innovation discussin in the book is related to math and science skills and training. How does one talk about data and especially trends in data without charts? (I guess Innovation Nation is one answer.)  Maybe this says as much about the declining context for innovation Kao is criticising as Kao's explicit criticism. I was dissppointed to find that Kao refrains from presenting trend data, estimating future rates of change, predicting future dynamics of funding, education and employment, projecting future points of capacity and expertise parity between countries, etc. Emotion is emotive (duh!), while systemic understanding provides a foundation for good design. We need both. (This is a recurring theme for me: see e.g.,  this post and this one.)

Regarding values, Kao writes, "If we are to renew our committment to being the world's leading innovator, we must teach three foundational values--the will to mastery, the spirit of risk taking, and the embrace of continuous change--supplemented by the crucial fourth value that rejects the idea of global competition as a zero-sum game." That's four, isnt' it?  Anyway, I think he is right on this point.

October 11, 2007

Is this long tail distribution a power law?

The discussion of power law vs long tail came up on Chris Anderson's Long Tail blog a couple of days ago. 

"Power law or not?" vs "Long-Tail or not?" are separate questions. If I understand Chris' thesis, Long Tail is the idea that there is a significant population in the "not-hit" part of the distribution, usually of low volume in any rank, but continuing out to very high ranks.

The idea that there is a region where the distribution is essentially "scale free" seems like the key concept. If we start there, interesting questions include: Can we characterize this region with a power law? And (my favorite), what are the dynamics of the system where scale matters? This last question is at the core of the economics of the long tail businesses in general. For example, determining how inexpensive we make "find" and "acquire" activities corresponds with the "knee" in the distribution.

Scale-free is a misleading mathematical idea in that nothing in nature is actually scale free for all domains. For example, an absurdity of assuming scale-free in every domain WRT music or movie hits is that anything created has at least 1 fan (i.e. we don't have an arbitrarily small hit)--this introduces scale and consequently, the region of arbitrarily small hits with less than 1 fan can't be modeled by a power law. That's a toy case, but illustrates how much scale matters.

Instead of including all the points in the power law fit, maybe we can look at the points up to the knee in power law model (it looks like x~3) and then try to understand what interesting dynamics shape the knee for x>3 with the assumption that some scaling has been introduced by cost, potential audience size limits, or whatever...

October 08, 2007

Boulder Half Marathon

I have said many times that I don't run over 15k.  But a group from work somehow talked me into the Boulder Half Marathon this year. The course heads north from Boulder Resevior on a nice mix of dirt and asphalt and the fall season in Colorado is the finest time of the year, so I didn't suffer much at all.  I came in just under 2 hours and had the breath and energy to talk along the way with friends as well as enjoy the views of Longs Peak and the Flatirons.  Here I am feeling ready to be done about 250 feet from the finish line.

Dr Skippy at the Boulder Half Marathon finish line 

Official times are here

October 01, 2007

Must-Watch Video: Randy Pausch "Last Lecture"

I was unfamiliar with Randy Pausch until today. However, I cannot recommend anything I have seen in the last few months more than this lecture.  Here is the description from Google videos:

Carnegie Mellon Professor Randy Pausch, who is dying from pancreatic cancer, gave his last lecture at the university Sept. 18, 2007, before 

Here is the link to the video.

 

 


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